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CG

Coronado Global Resources Inc. (CODQL)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 revenue fell short of consensus and prior year, driven by persistently weak met coal pricing and sales mix, while GAAP diluted EPS improved year-over-year and versus consensus; Adjusted EBITDA was negative as inventory build and lower realizations weighed on earnings. Bolded: Revenue miss and EBITDA miss; EPS beat. [*S&P Global]
  • Operations executed well: saleable production rose 21% QoQ, Mammoth reached ~65% of nameplate and Buchanan expansion commissioning continued; average mining cost/tonne improved to $89.7/t for the quarter and $80.1/t in September.
  • Liquidity actions advanced: proposed US$265M Stanwell ABL (5-year, 9–12%) plus rebate waiver from 2026 and prepayment support; near-term liquidity at Q3 end was $187M (cash $172M, undrawn ABL $16M).
  • Key risks/catalysts: Q3 10-Q includes going-concern language; closing/approval of Stanwell facility expected by late November; continued ramp to planned run rates by year-end and unit cost tailwinds may support estimate revisions.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “Q3 delivered material increases in all production and sales metrics... Saleable production highest since Q1 2021... Mammoth doubled production to ~65% of nameplate.”
  • Unit cost improvement: Average mining cost/tonne was $89.7 in Q3 and $80.1 in September month; second consecutive quarter below guidance thresholds.
  • Strategic liquidity: Proposed Stanwell transaction (US$265M ABL, 2026 rebate waiver, flexible covenants, prepayment support) aims to underwrite near-term liquidity through the low-pricing cycle.

What Went Wrong

  • Pricing and mix headwinds: Group realized met price ~$148.6/t (flat QoQ, -23% YoY), with higher thermal sales mix catching up contracted volumes; group met realization at ~81% of PLV index.
  • Earnings pressure: Adjusted EBITDA negative (~$22.5M) and GAAP net loss widened QoQ with Q3 coal revenues of $482.1M vs $600.7M in Q3 2024; inventory build and sales mix reduced realized price.
  • Going-concern uncertainty: Management notes substantial doubt absent successful execution of financing and operational plans; covenant waivers and downgrades highlight funding fragility.

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD)$608.215M $467.879M $482.127M
GAAP Diluted EPS-$0.42 -$0.45 -$0.65
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD)-$19.123M -$0.570M -$22.539M
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %-3.1% (calc from -$19.123M / $608.215M) -0.1% (calc from -$0.570M / $467.879M) -4.7% (calc from -$22.539M / $482.127M)

Segment revenue mix (geography):

Segment RevenueQ3 2024Q3 2025
Australia ($USD)$365.953M $300.317M
United States ($USD)$242.262M $181.810M
Total ($USD)$608.215M $482.127M

Production, pricing and cost KPIs:

KPIQ2 2025Q3 2025
ROM Production (Mt)7.0 7.4
Saleable Production (Mt)3.7 4.5
Sales Volumes (Mt)3.7 4.0
Avg Mining Cost / Tonne ($/t)$92.0 $89.7
Sept Month Avg Mining Cost / Tonne ($/t)—$80.1
Group Realized Met Price ($/t)$148.4 $148.6
Cash & Equivalents ($USD)$261.836M $172.088M
Undrawn ABL Availability ($USD)$22.432M $15.536M
Available Liquidity ($USD)$284.017M $187.373M

Consensus vs Actual (S&P Global):

MetricConsensus (Q3 2025)Actual (Q3 2025)
Revenue ($USD)$531.5M*$482.127M*
Primary EPS-$0.24*-$0.0636*
EBITDA ($USD)$20.4M*-$22.746M*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Estimates comparison notes:

  • Bold: Revenue miss (-$49.4M vs consensus). EBITDA miss (swing to -$22.7M). EPS beat (less negative than expected). [*S&P Global]

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent Guidance/UpdateChange
Average Mining Cost/tonneFY 2025Guidance low-end ~$90/t (performance below guidance in Q2) Q3 avg $89.7/t; Sept $80.1/t; management expects full-year unit cost around mid-point of guidance Trending below/at guidance; maintained
Capital ExpenditureFY 2025$230–$270M (guidance range) Cash capex expected at bottom-end ~$230M; Q3 capex ~$59M, down $16M QoQ Lowered to bottom-end
Liquidity FacilityNear-termABL $150M (drawn $75M; covenants) Proposed Stanwell ABL US$265M, 5-year, 9–12% interest; flexible covenants; first-priority on WC assets Raised
Stanwell RebateFrom 2026Rebate applies through 2025 (deferrals in 2025) Rebate waived from 2026 under proposed transaction Waived (positive)
Production RampH2 2025Mammoth/Buchanan to full run-rate by Dec 2025 (~3 Mt annualized) Still on track to planned run rates by year-end; Mammoth at ~65% nameplate in Sept Maintained/affirmed
Effective Tax RateFY 2025~14.6% at mid-year 7.7% at Q3 (due to valuation allowances) Lower ETR

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025)Previous Mentions (Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Pricing/Macro & TariffsPersistently low PLV; tariffs reshaping trade; India imports ~40% below expectations AUS PLV avg $184 in Q2; oversupply and tariff pressures reduce realizations PLV avg ~$184; market prefers lower-cost products; risks from tariffs/geopolitics continue Flat to weak
Supply Chain/LogisticsWeather and co-shipper delays; rail impacts in US Higher WICET costs; vessel/port mix impacted; inventory dynamics Shipping congestion (AU) and vessel schedule changes (US); 0.56 Mt product build Improving but still disruptive
Operational Ramp (Mammoth/Buchanan)Mammoth ramp; Buchanan ~90% complete Buchanan commissioning; Mammoth third miner added Mammoth at ~65% nameplate; Buchanan expansion increases capacity/skips Positive ramp
Cost/Capex Discipline$100M cost-out; idling Logan surface ops; capex heavily H1 Avg mining cost down; capex $147M H1 cash; H2 capex lower Q3 avg cost $89.7/t; Sept $80.1/t; H2 capex expected bottom-end Improving
Liquidity/FinancingRestructure/replace ABL; explore prepayments ABL $150M; Stanwell $75M prepay + deferral Proposed Stanwell US$265M facility + 2026 rebate waiver; going-concern disclosure Dependent on closing
Regulatory/Legal (QLD Provisioning)—Surety/guarantees rising; collateralization post-Q2 Indicative “High” risk allocation; potential ERC surety or 6.5% contribution Incremental risk

Note: No Q3 2025 call transcript found; investor call was announced on Oct 30 (AEST) but transcript was not available in the document set.

Management Commentary

  • “Q3 delivered material increases in all production and sales metrics... Our performance is expected to continue to improve into Q4, with our expansion projects scheduled to hit planned run rates by the end of year... and benefits from our cost reduction programs.” — Douglas Thompson, CEO
  • “The arrangement with Stanwell... is expected to support our liquidity needs through the sustained low pricing cycle... removes the rebate obligations to Stanwell from 2026... and only requires repayment when we have more than $300 million in available liquidity.”
  • “We remain confident in the strength of our asset base... strategically located operations, highly sought-after products... solid foundation for long-term value creation... operate efficiently and safely, protect cash, secure liquidity and preserve optionality through the current market downturn.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Liquidity strategy: Management worked to restructure/replace ABL, considered prepayments, emphasized getting through to 2026 when Stanwell obligations step down materially.
  • Cost actions: ~$100M savings targeted (idling Logan surface ops, rephasing development at Buchanan, contractor reductions at Curragh).
  • Breakeven sensitivity: Management avoided specific price breakevens, focused on cost-out and ramp to improve margins under current PLV assumptions.
  • Operational detail: Mammoth deployment of 3 continuous miners on schedule, secondary mining options for low-cost tonnage in 2026 discussed.

Note: These Q&A items are from Q1 2025 call due to lack of Q3 transcript availability. -

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 results vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue miss (-$49.4M), EBITDA miss (vs ~$20.4M expected), EPS beat (actual -$0.064 vs -$0.24 expected). Bolded: Misses and beat. [*S&P Global]
  • Given ramp execution and unit cost reductions, consensus may lower revenue/EBITDA trajectories near term unless PLV improves; EPS resilience reflects mix, cost actions, and deferred Stanwell rebate impact in 2025.

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution is improving: saleable production up 21% QoQ, Mammoth/Buchanan ramp on track, with unit cost tailwinds (Q3 $89.7/t; Sept $80.1/t). Near-term production gains should support margin recovery when pricing stabilizes.
  • Liquidity hinge: The proposed Stanwell US$265M facility (and 2026 rebate waiver) is the critical catalyst; closure/approvals by late November would materially de-risk covenants and working capital seasonality.
  • Pricing remains the swing factor: Group met realizations stuck ~$148–$149/t across Q2–Q3; any PLV uplift and improved mix toward met coal would meaningfully leverage earnings and cash flow.
  • Inventory release potential: ~0.56 Mt product inventory build late in Q3 should convert to cash in Q4, partially offsetting prior mix/price pressure.
  • Mind the going-concern footnote: Until financing closes and covenants reset with improved run-rate volumes, capital structure risks remain elevated; monitor covenant test dates and any waivers.
  • Tactical positioning: Near-term catalysts include Stanwell facility closing, confirmation of year-end run-rate, and Q4 cost performance; stock likely sensitive to any PLV index moves and AU/US logistics normalization.
  • Medium-term thesis: With low-cost underground tonnage ramp and rebate waiver from 2026, Coronado’s earnings power and free cash flow can inflect if met coal markets normalize; current actions preserve optionality to capture that turn.